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Constructing Log Posteriors𝞡

TL;DR

  • posteriors enforces log_posterior or log_likelihood functions to have a log_posterior(params, batch) -> log_prob, aux signature, where the second element is a tensor valued PyTree containing any auxiliary information.
  • Define your log_posterior or log_likelihood to be averaged across the batch.
  • Set temperature=1/num_data for Bayesian methods such as posteriors.sgmcmc.sghmc and posteriors.vi.diag.
  • This ensures that hyperparameters such as learning rate are consistent across batchsizes.

Auxiliary information𝞡

Model calls can be expensive, and they might provide more information than just an output value (and gradient). In order to avoid, losing this information posteriors enforces the log_posterior or log_likelihood functions to have a log_posterior(params, batch) -> log_prob, aux signature, where the second element contains any auxiliary information, such as predictions or alternative metrics.

posteriors algorithms will store this information in state.aux.

Gradient Ascent𝞡

Normally in gradient descent we minimize a loss function such as cross-entropy or mean squared error. This is equivalent to gradient ascent to maximise a log likelihood function e.g. cross-entropy loss corresponds to the log likelihood of a categorical distribution:

\[\begin{aligned} \log p(y_{1:N} \mid x_{1:N}, \theta) &= \sum_{i=1}^N \log p(y_{i} \mid x_i, \theta) \\ p(y_{i} \mid x_i, \theta) &= \text{Categorical}(y_i \mid f_\theta(x_i)) \\ \log p(y_{i} \mid x_i, \theta) &= \sum_{k=1}^K \mathbb{I}[y_i = k] [\log f_\theta(x_i)]_k \end{aligned}\]

Here \(K\) is the number of classes and \(\log f_\theta(x_i)\) is a vector (length \(K\)) of logits from the model (i.e. neural network) for input \(x_i\) and parameters \(\theta\).

In code

import torch.nn.functional as F
mean_log_lik = - F.cross_entropy(logits, labels.squeeze(-1))
or equivalently 
from torch.distributions import Categorical
mean_log_lik = Categorical(logits=logits, validate_args=False).log_prob(labels).mean()

Going Bayesian𝞡

To do Bayesian inference on the parameters \(\theta\) we look to approximate the posterior distribution

\[\begin{aligned} p(\theta \mid y_{1:N}, x_{1:N}) &= \frac{ p(\theta) p(y_{1:N} \mid x_{1:N}, \theta) }{Z} = \frac{ p(\theta) \prod_{i=1}^N p(y_{i} \mid x_{i}, \theta) }{Z} \\ \log p(\theta \mid y_{1:N}, x_{1:N}) &= \log p(\theta) + \sum_{i=1}^N \log p(y_{i} \mid x_{i}, \theta) - \log Z \end{aligned}\]

Here \(p(\theta)\) is some prior of the parameter which we have to define, \(Z\) is a normalizing constant which is independent of \(\theta\) and therefore we can ignore it (it disappears when we take the gradient).

Again we have to take minibatches giving us the stochastic log posterior \begin{aligned} \log p(\theta \mid y_{1:n}, x_{1:n}) = \log p(\theta) + \frac{N}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \log p(y_{i} \mid x_i, \theta) \end{aligned}

But the problem here is that the value of \(\log p(\theta \mid y_{1:n}, x_{1:n})\) will be very large in the realistic case when \(N\) is very large. Instead we should consider the averaged stochastic log posterior which remains on the same scale as either \(N\) or \(n\) increaase.

\[\begin{aligned} \frac{1}{N} \log p(\theta \mid y_{1:n}, x_{1:n}) = \frac1N \log p(\theta) + \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \log p(y_{i} \mid x_i, \theta) \end{aligned}\]

In code

import posteriors, torch
from optree import tree_map, tree_reduce
from torch.distributions import Categorical

model_function = posteriors.model_to_function(model)

def log_posterior(params, batch):
    logits = model_function(params, **batch)
    log_prior = diag_normal_log_prob(params, sd=1., normalize=False)
    mean_log_lik = Categorical(logits=logits).log_prob(batch['labels']).mean()
    mean_log_post = log_prior / num_data + mean_log_lik
    return mean_log_post

The issue with running Bayesian methods (such as VI or SGHMC) on this mean log posterior function is that naive application will result in approximating the tempered posterior

\begin{aligned} p(\theta \mid y_{1:N}, x_{1:N})^{\frac1N} &= \frac{ p(\theta)^{\frac1N} p(y_{1:N} \mid x_{1:N}, \theta)^{\frac1N} }{Z} \end{aligned} (a tempered distribution is \(q(x, T) := p(x)^{\frac1T}/Z\) for temperature \(T\)).

This tempered posterior is much less concentrated than the true posterior \(p(\theta \mid y_{1:N}, x_{1:N})\). To correct for this we can either supply our Bayesian inference algorithm with: 

temperature=1/num_data
Note that with this support, optimization can often be obtained by simply setting temperature=0.

Example

import torchopt
# Define log_posterior as above
# Load dataloader
num_data = len(dataloader.dataset)

vi_transform = posteriors.vi.diag.build(
    log_posterior=log_posterior,
    optimizer = torchopt.adam(lr=1e-3),
    temperature=1/num_data
)

vi_state = vi_transform.init(params)

for batch in dataloader:
    vi_state = vi_transform.update(vi_state, batch)

Alternatively, we can rescale the log posterior log_post = mean_log_post * num_data but this may not scale well as log_post values become extremely large resulting in e.g. the need for an extremely small learning rate.

Prior Hyperparameters𝞡

Observe the mean log posterior function \begin{aligned} \frac{1}{N} \log p(\theta \mid y_{1:n}, x_{1:n}) = \frac1N \log p(\theta) + \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \log p(y_{i} \mid x_i, \theta) \end{aligned}

Typically the prior \(p(\theta)\) will have some scale hyperparameter \(\sigma^2\): $$ p(\theta) = e^{\frac{1}{\sigma^2}\gamma(\theta)} / Z(\sigma^2) $$ (such as a normal distribution). The mean log posterior becomes \begin{aligned} \frac{1}{N} \log p(\theta \mid y_{1:n}, x_{1:n}) = \frac{1}{N\sigma^2} \gamma(\theta) + \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \log p(y_{i} \mid x_i, \theta) \end{aligned} We are free to choose \(\sigma^2\) and indeed it controls the strength of the prior vs the likelihood. In most cases we probably want the prior to be quite weak and therefore the variance \(\sigma^2\) quite large. As we can see if \(\sigma^2\) is large then the prior term becomes very small. We can ignore the normalising constant \(Z(\sigma^2)\) because it does not depend on \(\theta\), in fact this often recomended to keep the log_posterior values on a nice scale comparable to loss functions we are accustomed to, this can be achieved for a normal prior with posteriors.diag_normal_log_prob(x, normalize=False).